NEW YORK (77 WABC) — A balancing act as fears of a possible recession loom. Goldman Sachs sees the possibility of a recession at 35% over the next two years.
Chief economist Jan Hatzius says in research paper it signals the federal reserve’s challenge is to reduce the gap between jobs and workers, slow wage growth to a pace consistent with inflation without sharply raising unemployment.
Goldman Sachs envisions the “odds of a #recession as roughly 15% in the next 12 months and 35% within the next 24 months.” #Inflation #Economics https://t.co/p2jM0yp1B4
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“Taken at face value, these historical patterns suggest the Fed faces a hard path to a soft landing,” Hatzius told Bloomberg.
Historically large declines in the gap in the U.S. Have only occurred during recessions.
Economists recently have seen increasing odds of a U.S. recession, with 27.5% expecting a contraction in a Bloomberg survey in the first week of April, up from 20% a month earlier. They expect the consumer price index to average 5.7% in the final three months of the year, up from the previous 4.5% estimate.
